NY-REMO Topical Webinar 2023#2: NY’s Big REset

Description

The New York large-scale renewable market and the State’s renewable energy progress are getting a big reset after the New York Public Service Commission’s October 12 decision to deny the industry’s requests to adjust Tier 1 and OREC contract prices. A similar decision for Tier 4 seems imminent. Join Sustainable Energy Advantage for a webinar as we analyze what the decision means for what comes next – a new potentially massive Tier 1 procurement with new parameters, a shake-up in large-scale renewable supply timing and NYSERDA contract pricing, potential changes in projects and players – to gain early insights and start preparing for the opportunities, uncertainties, and challenges this reset may bring to the Tier 1 large-scale renewable development sector and the retail market sector.

Development Sector Reset

With the PSC decision not to rescue unfinanceable projects, developers and investors for the majority – over 10 GW – of the State’s contracted Tier 1 large-scale renewable supply are now back to the drawing board, needing to address new solicitation requirements and evolved development conditions that may drastically differ from what their original bids considered. Meanwhile, those with uncontracted projects are now in a dramatically different and much more crowded competitive field in upcoming solicitations. The development sector will need to navigate the opportunities and challenges in this new landscape in the backdrop of an already-uncertain development environment and new constraints triggered by a reset of the development pipeline. For some projects, new approaches, partners, capital sources, or owners may be the path forward.

Retail Market Sector Reset

The retail market already faced a big change earlier this year when the PSC directed a transition of Tier 1 compliance starting 2025 to a load-based approach, which will phase out the Tier 1 REC market. In this new landscape, rather than meeting a fixed obligation, load-serving entities’ Tier 1 compliance obligations – both their quantities and price – will be bound to deliveries from NYSERDA Tier 1 contract supply, whose volume and timing will not be fixed. Similarly, load-serving entities’ Offshore Wind Standard and Tier 4 compliance obligations are also tied to deliveries from NYSERDA OREC and Tier 4 contract supply. The reset in the delivery timing and costs of New York’s large-scale renewable contracts will significantly morph the shape and scale of the Clean Energy Standard compliance obligations and associated costs for New York retail suppliers and their customers.

We cover the following topics:

• Tier 1 large-scale renewable pipeline post-PSC decision: Assessment of characteristics, viability, volume, and deployment timing
• NYSERDA Tier 1 large-scale renewable procurement need post-PSC decision: Assessment of potential volumes under alternative policy and market futures
• The next Tier 1 RESRFP(s): How potential policy decisions and design choices may affect potential bidder actions (rebids and new bids) and solicitation outcomes
• OREC and Tier 4 landscape post-PSC decision: High-level assessment and discussion of impacts to New York’s clean energy progress
• Implications and considerations for the large-scale development sector, including: Impacts of development pipeline reset on large-scale renewable supply timing and development bottlenecks; competitive advantages and disadvantages for rebids and new bids in upcoming solicitations; opportunities amidst a resetting market
• Implications and considerations for the retail market sector: Impact of NYSERDA large-scale renewable contract supply reset on compliance obligations and costs to customers
• Implications and considerations for voluntary market buyers: What opportunities (volume and pricing) may the NYSERDA large-scale renewable contract supply reset create for buyers seeking near-term renewable PPA opportunities? How does the reset affect the timing, volume, and pricing of NYSERDA’s Tier 1 REC resales to the voluntary market?
• Implications and considerations for policymakers: What are the policy decisions and market design choices that keep New York on pace of its renewable energy and climate goals?